Global growth is expected to remain moderate but uneven across regions in 2026 as geopolitical tensions, elevated uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions weigh on activity. Trade and investment activity are also likely to remain subdued amid continued volatility and uncertainty, with economies benefitting from technology investment and those exposed to energy shocks the most impacted. Inflation is expected to remain above target for longer in many economies as higher energy and commodity prices have stalled the disinflation process. Further to this, renewed U.S.-Iran tensions have increased upside risks to inflation and downside growth risks, although continued investment and a normalization in trade activity could provide some support. We remain attentive to developments that could affect the balance of risks to the outlook.
